With the increase in demand in mainland China, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Asia has fully recovered, indicating that the worst situation may have ended. The Eurozone index is also better than the initial valuation and the decline has slowed. The United States and the United Kingdom have even returned to prosperity. The glorious line is above 50.
The closely watched U.S. manufacturing index jumped to its highest level in 14 months in June, showing that the US economy has regained its vitality after the epidemic was unsealed. The American Supply Management Association (ISM) said on the 1st that the manufacturing index rose to 52.6 in June, not only higher than the market's estimated 49.8, but also the largest increase since August 1980.
In Asia, the three IHS Markit manufacturing powers, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, all rebounded to 40.1, 43.4 and 46.2, but still below the 50 line. Although India has risen, it has been shrinking for three consecutive months. Indonesia’s index has increased by 11 points, the largest increase since 2011, but it has still shrunk. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI in Mainland China rose from 50.7 to 51.2; Vietnam and Malaysia returned to growth for the first time since January this year and December last year, with indices of 52.5 and 51 each, and Australia also resumed growth with an index of 51.5.
The Eurozone’s June IHS Markit manufacturing PMI jumped from 39.4 in May to 47.4, better than the initial estimate of 46.9, and an output-measured index jumped from 35.6 to 48.9. France’s index was 52.3, the highest in 21 months, and Ireland’s was 51, which is another euro-zone country that has returned to growth. Germany, Europe's largest economy, rose from 36.6 in May to 45.2, the highest in three months, but it is still shrinking. Greece, Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands all have indexes below 50.
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK manufacturing PMI jumped from 40.7 in May to 50.1 in June. It is the same as the initial valuation and is the first time since February that it has crossed the 50 line of symbolic expansion. Dubson, director of IHS Markit, said: "As the blockade restrictions are relaxed, factories are restarted and employees go back to work, output has increased slightly and domestic demand is solid." "The UK is scheduled to relax the epidemic restrictions on the 4th, which will help the manufacturing PMI in the future. It's been higher in a few months."
Singaporean Overseas Chinese Bank (OCBC) economist Wiranto said: "Today's pile of PMI data provides reassuring signs that the outlook for key manufacturing is improving." But global demand is still sluggish and the outbreak of a new one The fear of the epidemic will weaken the confidence of an optimistic outlook and will increase the pressure on policymakers to support a weak economy. Williamson, chief corporate economist at IHS Markit, pointed out that even though most of the PMIs in Asia and Europe have picked up, production and confidence are still below the peak before the epidemic, and continued weak demand combined with the social distance that is still being implemented may drag down the recovery.